In My Opinion: Future of Telecommunications is Being Shaped Today

Telecommunications is changing so quickly that many people - including regulators in some cases - fail to recognize the industry's emerging new shape.

Those with an outmoded view tend to regard local telephone company mergers as anti-competitive, while at the same time they extol the supposedly pro-competitive virtues of mergers between such integrated global carriers as MCI and WorldCom. Among consumer advocates, there seems to be a lingering bias against the phone companies left over from the era of the Bell System monopoly, a fear of putting Ma Bell back together.

In fact, it would be very bad for consumers, and for the nation overall, if companies like SBC and GTE and others were held back from plans to merge and jumpstart entry into new markets with the scope and capitalization needed to be major global competitors.

These are the carriers that are mandated to provide affordable service to all Americans. They represent the most heavily unionized segment of the industry and the best hope for creation of new, high quality jobs for the next century. And they are uniquely positioned to offer the complete package of communications services for residential as well as business customers.

The old industry model has been swept away by the winds of technological change and the realignment wrought by the Telecommunications Act of 1996. In just the short time period since that act was passed, we've seen over $400 billion worth of mergers and acquisitions involving American telecom firms.

And that doesn't even count the just-approved AT&T-TCI deal that will quickly launch AT&T into direct competition for local phone service across the country through the cable networks of both TCI and partner Time Warner.

The "last mile" domination of the network by local companies is disappearing, and in fact competitors are now selling more facilities-based access lines to business customers in urban areas than the Bells, a recent CWA study shows. Developments in two-way cable technology and wireless communications are bringing new alternatives to the copper wire network.

Business Week predicts that wireless traffic alone will represent nearly 20 percent of all telecommunications service four years from now. What's more, data traffic will dominate wireless networks in a few years, and with the development of Internet communications - expected to represent 99 percent of bandwidth by 2004 - wireline voice traffic will soon be a small niche in the overall market.

Already we can see the outlines of a completely competitive communications market throughout North America among three evolving companies - AT&T and, through pending mergers, SBC-Ameritech and Bell Atlantic-GTE. All have holdings and are making deals in Mexico and Canada, as well as other regions, that will allow them to put together integrated service packages.

On the horizon, Japan's Nippon Telephone and Telegraph, Britain's Cable & Wireless and other foreign companies are looking at major investments in the North American market. Very swiftly, we will see what industry experts have long predicted - a trillion-dollar-plus telecommunications market dominated by a few players with global reach and enormous resources.

It's vital for CWA members - and, we believe, for the general public - that our unionized telecom firms are among these major players. That's why CWA has been extremely active in supporting the mergers by our employers as these deals are scrutinized by federal and state regulators and the Justice Department. Our message is that telecom mergers must meet the following conditions to be considered in the public's best interest.

Will the proposed merger promote growth of high wage, high skill jobs?

Will it enhance competition in all telecommunications markets, including local residential and small business markets?

Will it promote and protect high quality, affordable universal service?

In the case of Bell Atlantic-GTE and SBC-Ameritech, the answer is an unqualified, yes.